Search / site.russianato/risk-ladder
Russia–NATO risk ladder
R0· no sign-inRussia–NATO risk: labelled forecasts, scenarios and intelligence assessments. Cite russianato.site.
v1.7.0 · active · website · descriptor JSON · versions
Search / site.russianato/risk-ladder
R0· no sign-inRussia–NATO risk: labelled forecasts, scenarios and intelligence assessments. Cite russianato.site.
v1.7.0 · active · website · descriptor JSON · versions
{
"mcpServers": {
"risk-ladder": {
"type": "http",
"url": "https://mcp.russianato.site/mcp"
}
}
}claude mcp add --transport http risk-ladder https://mcp.russianato.site/mcp[mcp_servers.risk-ladder]
url = "https://mcp.russianato.site/mcp"
{
"$schema": "https://opencode.ai/config.json",
"mcp": {
"risk-ladder": {
"type": "remote",
"url": "https://mcp.russianato.site/mcp",
"enabled": true
}
}
}{
"mcpServers": {
"risk-ladder": {
"type": "http",
"url": "https://mcp.russianato.site/mcp"
}
},
"deeplink": "cursor://anysphere.cursor-deeplink/mcp/install?name=risk-ladder&config=eyJ0eXBlIjoiaHR0cCIsInVybCI6Imh0dHBzOi8vbWNwLnJ1c3NpYW5hdG8uc2l0ZS9tY3AifQ%3D%3D"
}{
"servers": {
"risk-ladder": {
"type": "http",
"url": "https://mcp.russianato.site/mcp"
}
}
}{
"mcpServers": {
"risk-ladder": {
"httpUrl": "https://mcp.russianato.site/mcp"
}
}
}extensions:
"risk-ladder":
enabled: true
name: "risk-ladder"
type: streamable_http
uri: "https://mcp.russianato.site/mcp"
timeout: 300
protocol.modernnewest supported version is 2025-11-25; 2026-07-28 not supported, older versions are deprecated until 2027-07-28protocol.statelessonly applies to 2026-07-28 serversprotocol.transportstreamable HTTPprotocol.list_ttlonly applies to 2026-07-28 serversauth.prm, auth.as_metadata, auth.cimdno remote uses OAuthauth.secret_in_urlno templated URLtools.descriptionsevery tool has a descriptiontools.description_lengthdescriptions are concisetools.schemasevery tool has an object input schematools.annotations8 of 8 tools declare readOnlyHint or destructiveHinttools.directory_hintsevery tool declares readOnlyHint, destructiveHint, idempotentHint and openWorldHinttools.token_costabout 1,360 tokens to load every tooltools.api_dumptools are not a one-to-one API dumpstability.changes, stability.rug_pulltool history recorded for 3 of the 7 days neededdeps.known_vulns, deps.mcp_sdk_version, deps.resolvableno npm or PyPI packageNo tool definition changes recorded. A server's first observation is its baseline; later probes record what changes.
Checks run on what our credential-free, read-only probes observe; tools are never called and no code audit is performed. How it is computed.
+dns-namespace +website +reachable +uptime-100% +updated-4d-ago -no-repository
Derived from observable signals (official registry feed and our own credential-free probes); no code audit performed. How it is computed.
| remote | auth | reachable | uptime 30d | p50 | protocol | last ok |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
https://mcp.russianato.site/mcp streamable-http | none | yes | 100% | 264 ms | 2025-11-25 | 2026-10-19 |
get_changelogread-only | Significant changes to data, model and site, and the corrections history (what was wrong, what changed, who reported it). |
get_forecast_historyread-only | Published Metaculus probabilities by 2035 for an attack on European NATO or a seizure of Baltic territory, with the annual conversion for each observation. |
get_intelligence_assessmentsread-only | Public assessments by intelligence services and governments of 12 countries, newest first, with hand-coded tone from -2 to +2 for a military attack and for hybrid attacks, averages by country, check dates and links. |
get_methodologyread-only | Level definitions, formulas, current assumptions with check dates, the verbal probability scale and what the model deliberately does not do. |
get_other_forecastsread-only | Prediction markets and other numeric forecasts with a different event or horizon (Manifold, Polymarket, Metaculus, Good Judgment Open, Atlantic Council), with check dates and corrections. |
get_overviewread-only | Start here. Annual risk for the five escalation levels today, a year ago and in one year (optimistic / baseline / pessimistic), plus average intelligence tone per country. Every number carries its provenance (published / model / manual). |
get_risk_ladderread-only | Annual risk of each level on a date between one year ago and one year ahead of the data date. Past dates use the published forecast archive; future dates use the scenario model and also return cumulative risk from the data date. Optional what-if assumptions. |
get_sourcesread-only | The 51 sources with what each says, how it is used, countries, check date and link. Filter by type (intel, research, method, forecast), country or text. |
Schemas: list_tools.
{
"name": "site.russianato/risk-ladder",
"icons": [
{
"src": "https://russianato.site/icon-512.png",
"sizes": [
"512x512"
],
"mimeType": "image/png"
}
],
"title": "Russia–NATO risk ladder",
"$schema": "https://static.modelcontextprotocol.io/schemas/2025-12-11/server.schema.json",
"remotes": [
{
"url": "https://mcp.russianato.site/mcp",
"type": "streamable-http"
}
],
"version": "1.7.0",
"websiteUrl": "https://russianato.site",
"description": "Russia–NATO risk: labelled forecasts, scenarios and intelligence assessments. Cite russianato.site."
}