Politician Trades

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Tool list unknown · tools last changed 2026-09-26 · checked 2026-10-20 23:59 UTC

Tool changes

• 2026-09-26pipeworx_feedbackremoved

  Tell the Pipeworx team something is broken, missing, or needs to exist. Use when a tool returns wrong/stale data (bug), when a tool you wish existed isn't in the catalog (feature/data_gap), or when something worked surprisingly well (praise). ONLY for tools served by this Pipeworx connection — if the tool came from a different MCP server in your client (another vendor's Gmail, Splunk, Slack, etc. connector), we cannot fix it and reporting it here only delays you; file it with that server instead. Not sure? Pipeworx tool names are the ones this connection lists. Describe the issue in terms of Pipeworx tools/packs — don't paste the end-user's prompt. Filing without an account returns a `claim_token`; pass it back later as pipeworx_feedback({claim_token:"pwfb_…"}) to read whether it was fixed and what changed. The team reads digests daily and signal directly affects roadmap. Rate-limited to 5 per identifier per day. Free; doesn't count against your tool-call quota.

• 2026-09-26ai_visibility_checkremoved

  Probe one or more LLMs for what they know about a business / brand / product / topic and score visibility (0-100) per model. Default model is Workers AI Llama-3.3-70b (free); pass `_apiKey` to also probe Anthropic (BYO key — you pay Anthropic directly for those calls). Returns per-model {score, confidence, signals, raw_response} + a combined view. Useful for AI-marketing audits, pre-launch brand checks, competitive monitoring.

• 2026-09-26suggest_questionsremoved

  What can I ask Pipeworx? / what is Pipeworx good for? / what can you do? / give me ideas / show me examples / getting started / what data do you have? — the onboarding entry point for an agent that just connected and wants to know what is worth asking. Returns category-bucketed example questions (company financials, drugs & clinical trials, economics, real estate, prediction markets, weather, government & patents, science & academia, news) — each with the exact tool + argument shape that answers it, drawn from the live catalog of thousands of tools. Call with no arguments for the full spread, or pass `topic` (e.g. "finance", "pharma", "betting") to focus. Use this FIRST when you do not yet know what Pipeworx can do for you, or to learn how to call the meta-tools (ask_pipeworx, entity_profile, compare_entities, etc.).

• 2026-09-26pipeworx_trendingremoved

  What other AI agents are calling on Pipeworx right now. Returns the top tools, top packs, and total call volume over a recent window (24h, 7d, or 30d). Useful for: (1) discovering what data sources are hot for current events, (2) confirming a popular tool is the canonical choice before asking your own question, (3) seeing whether your use case aligns with what most agents need. Self-aggregating signal — derived from CF analytics-engine, no PII, just (pack, tool, count). Cached 5min-1h depending on window.

• 2026-09-26release_calendar_marketsremoved

  JOIN of the official release calendar (econ data, the FOMC, FDA decisions, SEC rules) against LIVE Polymarket/Kalshi markets — which scheduled releases land in the next N hours, and which live markets resolve on them. This is a POSITIONING tool, not a speed product: results are cached like every other pack (≤ 60s TTL) and there is no push/webhook — do not use this to try to beat a release, use it to see what is coming and what is already priced. CATEGORIES: econ (CPI, Employment Situation/jobs report, GDP, PCE, PPI, retail sales, housing starts, jobless claims — via fred_release_dates per known release_id, since FRED's own cross-release calendar mostly returns recent actuals, not future dates), fed (the next FOMC meeting's rate decision, via fomc_calendar), fda (PDUFA action dates + FDA advisory-committee meetings, via pdufa_catalysts / fda_adcom_calendar), sec (SEC final rules whose own DATES clause names an effective date in the window, via federal-register recent_rules — usually finds nothing in a short window since SEC rules typically take effect 30–60 days out, which is an accurate answer, not a bug), court (ALWAYS EMPTY today — court-listener has no forward-looking scheduled-hearing calendar, only filing/termination dates, so this category returns zero releases with unsupported:true rather than fabricate one). Omit `categories` or pass "all" for every category. MATCHING AND ITS HONESTY CONTRACT: every release is returned even when it has ZERO matched markets — a release is never dropped just because nothing on Polymarket or Kalshi resolves on it (most FDA/SEC releases will show markets:[]; that is signal, not a gap). Every matched market carries resolves_on_this_release: "true" (the venue's own close/end date sits within ~36h of the release AND the question passed a subject filter — econ and fed only), "likely" (same subject filter, but the venue closes days away from the release date), or "unclear" (a keyword hit with no date to anchor against — always true for the fda category, which has no ladder structure to check a date against). matched_by names the mechanism (a Kalshi series ticker, a Polymarket search query, or an FDA keyword probe) so a caller can judge the match rather than trust a label. scheduled_at carries both `utc` and `et`; econ releases use the standing BLS/Census 8:30am ET convention (FRED's calendar itself has no clock time), FOMC decisions use the 2:00pm ET convention, and FDA/SEC dates are date_only:true (no reliable clock time exists for either). DO NOT treat a matched market as a real arbitrage or a settled fact on its own — a market question sharing tokens with a release name is not proof it settles on that release's own published number. Call resolution_audit / resolution_diff (fleet #1909) on a specific market before sizing anything here. An empty window (zero releases across every requested category) returns error:"no_releases_in_window" with a widen-the-window hint rather than an empty array — econ releases especially cluster on specific dates each month, so a 48h window often straddles a dead stretch.

• 2026-09-26resolution_diffremoved

  Field-by-field diff of TWO markets' settlement clauses (one from each of `a` and `b`; either can be Polymarket or Kalshi) — runs resolution_audit on both sides and compares source, settle time, precision, and evidence standard. Returns `equivalent`: "true" only when both sides parsed with enough confidence to compare AND no field conflicts; "false" when a specific conflict was found (differing_fields names which — e.g. ["source","settle_time"] for a Polymarket Bitcoin market settling on Binance's 1-minute candle at noon ET versus a Kalshi KXBTCD market settling on CF Benchmarks' BRTI 60-second average at 5pm EDT — SAME asset, DIFFERENT contract); "unclear" when one or both sides could not be confidently parsed (an absence of evidence is not evidence of equivalence — read raw_clause yourself in that case). Only flags a field as differing when BOTH sides gave a SPECIFIC comparable answer — a named source (e.g. "Associated Press, Fox News, NBC") against a generic one (e.g. Kalshi's "consensus of media organizations") is treated as the same evidence standard, not a conflict, since that is standard election-market boilerplate on both venues. Use this before sizing a polymarket_kalshi_spread pair as a real cross-venue arb, or standalone to sanity-check any two markets you suspect settle on different things.

• 2026-09-26resolution_auditremoved

  Extract the settlement clause of a single Polymarket or Kalshi market: who publishes the settling number (source), the clock time + timezone it is taken at, the precision of the computation (e.g. "1-minute candle close" vs "60-second trailing average" vs "election outcome"), the evidence standard (official_source | consensus_reporting | any_credible_report | unspecified), and void_handling (cancellation/postponement settlement — reused verbatim from bet_research's cancellation_rule detector, not re-derived). Parses Polymarket's `description` field (fetched via polymarket_market) or Kalshi's `rules_primary` + `rules_secondary` fields (fetched via kalshi_market) with regex + a small vocabulary — no LLM pass, so an unusual clause reports confidence:"low" rather than a guess. Pass `market` as a Polymarket slug/URL or a Kalshi market ticker (e.g. "KXBTCD-26SEP1317-T66999.99"); a Kalshi EVENT ticker (e.g. "KXBTCD-26SEP1317") also works — it picks one representative market under that event, since the settlement mechanism is normally shared across all strikes/legs in one event. Use this before treating a polymarket_kalshi_spread row as a real arbitrage: two ladders that look alike can settle on different sources, at different times, with different precision — this tool is how you check. Pair with resolution_diff to compare two markets directly. KNOWN GAP: idiosyncratic phrasing that doesn't match the vocabulary returns confidence:"low" and evidence_standard:"unspecified" rather than an LLM-guessed answer.

• 2026-09-26polymarket_edge_trackerremoved

  Edge persistence and decay telemetry built from daily polymarket_edges snapshots. Answers "how long has this edge existed and is it shrinking?" — a fresh wide edge and a 3-week-old wide edge are different trades (the latter is wide for a reason nobody is willing to take). Args: days (lookback, default 14, max 30), window (snapshot family, default "1wk"). RESPONSE: tracked[] = every opportunity in the LATEST snapshot with its full edge_pp_net time-series across prior snapshots, first_seen, trend (new | widening | stable | decaying) and decay_pp_per_day (both computed on |edge_pp_net| — the value itself is signed by trade direction, negative = SELL YES); expired[] = opportunities that appeared in earlier snapshots but are GONE from the latest (closed, resolved, or arbed away) with their lifespan_days — the median lifespan is your competition clock; snapshot_dates[] = which days actually have data (snapshots are written when polymarket_edges runs on a cache-miss, so gaps mean nobody scanned that day). LIMITS: history depth is bounded by the 60-day snapshot TTL and starts from when snapshotting was enabled; decay numbers come from daily closes of edge_pp_net (net of default slippage AND Polymarket's own taker fee — see polymarket_edges), not intraday.

• 2026-09-26polymarket_kalshi_spreadremoved

  Cross-venue spread between Kalshi and Polymarket for the same resolving question. The two venues sometimes price the same outcome 2-25pp apart because their participant pools differ — when the bet shapes are equivalent that delta is a real signal, when they aren't the tool says so. TWO MODES: (1) `topic` — 11 pre-mapped macro subjects ("fed", "btc", "eth", "cpi", "gdp", "sp500", "recession", "next_pope", "next_uk_pm", "next_israel_pm", "2028_president") auto-fetch the matching event on each venue. You do NOT have to use those exact keys: the topic is resolved through aliases and keywords, so "bitcoin", "fed rate decision", "inflation", "s&p 500" and "next pope" all land on the right subject, and `resolution.topic_matched_by` tells you whether it was an exact key, a known alias, a phrase found inside a longer question, or a single-keyword guess — treat "phrase" and "token" as a GUESS at what you meant. An unresolvable topic returns error:"mapping_failed" with mapping_stage:"topic_unrecognized" and known_topics[]; it never silently falls back to a default subject. (2) explicit `kalshi_event_ticker` + `polymarket_event_slug` for custom pairings — BOTH modes run the identical token-overlap matcher, so the same disclosures apply to both. `resolution` is returned in BOTH modes and says how each side's identifier was picked (which Kalshi series was queried, how many events came back, whether the chosen one had quoted markets; which Polymarket search query ran and why that event won). Fleet #2064: when two Polymarket candidates tie on resolution time `polymarket_selected_by` now SAYS so, names every tied slug, names the tie-break that actually decided it (the candidate whose metric_type matches the Kalshi series, else lexicographic slug order), and states whether the winner's metric matches the Kalshi series — it used to assert "picked the soonest-resolving" byte-identically on calls that returned DIFFERENT events, because the tie was settled by upstream fetch arrival order. RESPONSE: each venue's leg-by-leg prices (raw probability 0-1) plus matched spread[].top_spreads_pp (Kalshi − Polymarket) where the same outcome shows up on both sides. SAFETY FIELDS: compatibility_warning is a sentence and compatibility_codes[] the machine-readable form; BOTH can be non-empty on returned pairs, so read them even when matched_pairs>0. Codes: event_subject_mismatch (the two event titles share no subject words — probably not the same question), temporal_mismatch (the two events are about different SUBJECT months — e.g. Kalshi "CPI in October" vs Polymarket "September Inflation"), temporal_alignment_unknown (the subject month could not be parsed on one or both sides — NOT the same as confirmed-aligned; check each event yourself), non_equivalent_bet_shapes, no_candidate_pairs, unclassified_legs_excluded, pairing_unverified (set in EITHER mode whenever pairs are returned: the legs were matched by keyword and word overlap, not a shared resolution source). Each entry in top_spreads_pp carries its own flags[] (temporal_mismatch, temporal_alignment_unknown, event_subject_mismatch, low_token_overlap). A leg whose metric_type or match_subtype is "unknown" is NEVER paired — those comparisons land in spread.skipped_unclassified and, when the wording lined up, in spread.low_confidence_pairs[] for inspection only. temporal_alignment{polymarket_month,kalshi_month,aligned} tells you whether the two events are about the same SUBJECT calendar period, in EITHER mode — this is the period the question is ABOUT (e.g. "September" for a CPI release that settles in October), not necessarily when either side settles; null means it could not be computed (see temporal_alignment_unknown), not that the two sides align. Fleet #2062: this used to compare Polymarket's settlement date against Kalshi's subject month and call a match — fixed to compare subject month to subject month on both sides. FEES: every top_spreads_pp and low_confidence_pairs[] row carries edge_pp_gross (== |sp

• 2026-09-26bet_researchremoved

  Research a Polymarket bet by pulling the relevant Pipeworx data for it in one call. Pass a market slug ("will-kristi-noem-win-the-2028-republican-presidential-nomination"), a polymarket.com URL, or a question text. Prefer an UNDATED slug: a dated one ("...-by-june-30-2026") stops resolving the day it settles, because Polymarket de-indexes resolved markets. The tool resolves the market, classifies the bet, fans out to category-specific data packs in parallel, and returns an evidence packet + simple market-vs-model comparison. Use for "should I bet on X", "what does the data say about Y", or "is there edge in Z". CLASSIFIERS: crypto_price, fed_rate, geopolitical, sports, sports_championship, drug_approval, election_candidate, tech_launch, space_launch, corporate, corporate_earnings, corporate_event, public_figure_speech, weather, other. FAN-OUT EXAMPLES: BTC bet → coingecko + fred + gdelt+gnews; Fed bet → fred (DFEDTARU + EFFR + CPIAUCSL) + kalshi_macro (KXFED implied probs) + recent_fed_actions (federal-register rules, last 365d); Hormuz bet → imf_portwatch + airspace + gdelt; Yankees WS → mlb_stats_standings + parent_event partition + news; hottest-year bet → climate_projection_nyc + gistemp_latest (NASA global anomaly, rank since 1880) + news; NVDA-vs-AAPL → finnhub get_quote + edgar shares-outstanding (derived market cap) + edgar filings + news. RESPONSE SHAPES: result.market carries best_bid/best_ask/spread_pp/liquidity/price_change_1h/1d/1w; result.analysis carries model_probability/edge_pp/kelly_fraction_half when a closed-form model fires PLUS a 24h-move warning ("Market moved X.Xpp in 24h, comparable to model edge — your edge may already be priced in") when relevant; result.evidence is keyed by source. RESOLVER CONTRACT: result.market_match_confidence ∈ {high, medium, low, none}, market_match_score (0-1 token-overlap), market_match_alternatives[] (other candidate markets the resolver considered), and suggestions[] (explicit re-query hints when the match is fuzzy) — ALWAYS inspect these before trusting the analysis block, because medium/low matches can still surface other fields. PARENT_EVENT EXTRACTOR: when the bet is one leg of a partition (Yankees WS, Romania election), result.parent_event{matched_candidate, top_legs_by_price[], partition_size, placeholders_filtered} gives you the peer prices in one place — that's the headline for elections/championships. NEWS FIELDS: news entries carry _fallback_attempted / _fallback_failed_reason / retry_after_sec when GDELT 429s and GNews backfill ran or failed. SAFETY: low-confidence resolutions short-circuit with status:"low_confidence_match" and suppress analysis fields so agents can't accidentally size on phantom matches. Closed/dead markets that ARE still indexed by Polymarket (yes_price≈0, no volume, no liquidity) return status:"market_closed_or_inactive" and skip fan-out. A market whose own deadline has already passed returns status:"market_expired_or_resolved" + expired_deadline (the date), which is deliberately NOT the same answer as low_confidence_match: your slug was right and is merely settled, so the useful retry is the successor market for the same question, not a corrected spelling. In practice resolved markets are usually de-indexed and instead surface via one of those two paths — both routes are BLOCKING, just different mechanisms. Wide-spread markets (>10pp) carry tradeability:"illiquid_wide_spread" + an explanatory note. RESOLUTION-RULE RISK: market.cancellation_rule parses the void/postponement settlement out of the resolution text — refund_50_50 (shares settle flat 50¢ on void; EV-material for any entry away from 50¢, with ev_impact quantified), resolves_no_on_cancel, resolves_yes_on_cancel, carries_to_reschedule, or mentioned_unclear. null means the description never mentions cancellation. Check this before sizing sports/esports/event-occurrence bets — audited arb-bot ledgers show flat-50¢ void settlements are a recurring pure-rules loss.

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