Paraguay Dncp

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Tool list unknown · tools last changed 2026-10-14 · checked 2026-10-19 10:52 UTC

Tool changes

• 2026-10-14kalshi_weather_edgeremoved

  Prices Kalshi daily high-temperature markets against the NWS forecast for the market's OWN settlement station, and measures whether that forecast actually beats the market. Two modes. LIVE (default): returns the full strike ladder for one city and settlement date with market_prob (mid), forecast_prob, and edge_pp per strike, plus the settlement clause verbatim. BACKTEST (`backtest_days: N`): scores an archived gridded forecast against the market on settled days and returns brier_market vs brier_forecast with a plain-English `verdict`, so the edge is MEASURED rather than asserted. READ THE WARNINGS — they are not boilerplate. (1) These markets DO NOT settle on the NWS. They settle on The Weather Company (weather.com) at a Kalshi station code such as CLINYC, which the response quotes verbatim; so part of every edge_pp is NWS-vs-Weather-Company disagreement about the same day at the same station, which is not mispricing and not tradeable. `settlement_vs_forecast_basis_f` from backtest mode is that part as a number. (2) The station is DERIVED from the settlement clause, never from the city name: Chicago settles at MIDWAY and New York at CENTRAL PARK, so a city-centre forecast would misprice a whole ladder. A station that cannot be resolved yields rows with no forecast and a reason, never a guessed coordinate. (3) forecast_prob assumes a normal distribution around the NWS high whose width is ASSUMED, not fitted (stated in `distribution_assumption`) — run backtest mode to see whether it is calibrated. (4) edge_pp is gross: no Kalshi fees, no bid-ask. MEASURED RESULT, AND IT IS NOT THE FLATTERING ONE: on the first backtest (KXHIGHNY, 13 settled days to 2026-09-11, 58 market observations) the MARKET beat the forecast — Brier 0.1008 for the market against 0.1594 for the archived gridded forecast, lower being better. So on that sample there is NO forecast edge to sell, and a large edge_pp is more likely to be the model disagreeing with a better-informed market than an opportunity. The measured settlement-vs-forecast basis was 1.7F mean absolute over 8 pinnable days, slightly warm-biased, which is a big share of a typical edge_pp on a 2-degree bracket. Re-run backtest_days before believing any edge; if a later sample reverses this, the numbers say so. NWS is US-only, so the ~30 international Kalshi weather series (London, Paris, Tokyo) return market prices with forecast_unavailable rather than a forecast. Precipitation series are listed but not yet priced. Cities: nyc, chicago, los angeles, miami, austin, houston, denver, philadelphia — or pass `series_ticker` for any other (e.g. "KXHIGHTBOS").

• 2026-10-14paraguay_get_recordremoved

  Get the full Paraguay procurement record for a process from the official DNCP Open Contracting (OCDS) API. Pass the numeric process id (e.g. 291566) or the ocid (e.g. "ocds-03ad3f-291566-1"). Returns the compiled OCDS release: ocid, title, buyer, contract value + currency (PYG), status, procurement method, key dates, tender items, and awards (suppliers + award amounts). Field values are in Spanish; keys are English.

• 2026-10-14classify_rowremoved

  Cheap categorization: given a company and a list of candidate labels, decide which labels apply — the most common GTM/AI usage shape (tagging a list by industry, ICP fit, etc.), one small model call. Same evidence contract as research_row: each label comes back {label, applies, evidence_url, quote, status: found|inferred|not_established} — "found" only when the model's quote is independently verified as a verbatim substring of the text used. Pass text directly (cheapest — no fetch) or entity.domain to fetch the homepage once as a fallback. No text and no domain means every label is not_established with no model call made.

• 2026-10-14polymarket_kalshi_spreadremoved

  Cross-venue spread between Kalshi and Polymarket for the same resolving question. The two venues sometimes price the same outcome 2-25pp apart because their participant pools differ — when the bet shapes are equivalent that delta is a real signal, when they aren't the tool says so. TWO MODES: (1) `topic` — 11 pre-mapped macro subjects ("fed", "btc", "eth", "cpi", "gdp", "sp500", "recession", "next_pope", "next_uk_pm", "next_israel_pm", "2028_president") auto-fetch the matching event on each venue. You do NOT have to use those exact keys: the topic is resolved through aliases and keywords, so "bitcoin", "fed rate decision", "inflation", "s&p 500" and "next pope" all land on the right subject, and `resolution.topic_matched_by` tells you whether it was an exact key, a known alias, a phrase found inside a longer question, or a single-keyword guess — treat "phrase" and "token" as a GUESS at what you meant. An unresolvable topic returns error:"mapping_failed" with mapping_stage:"topic_unrecognized" and known_topics[]; it never silently falls back to a default subject. (2) explicit `kalshi_event_ticker` + `polymarket_event_slug` for custom pairings — BOTH modes run the identical token-overlap matcher, so the same disclosures apply to both. `resolution` is returned in BOTH modes and says how each side's identifier was picked (which Kalshi series was queried, how many events came back, whether the chosen one had quoted markets; which Polymarket search query ran and why that event won). Fleet #2064: when two Polymarket candidates tie on resolution time `polymarket_selected_by` now SAYS so, names every tied slug, names the tie-break that actually decided it (the candidate whose metric_type matches the Kalshi series, else lexicographic slug order), and states whether the winner's metric matches the Kalshi series — it used to assert "picked the soonest-resolving" byte-identically on calls that returned DIFFERENT events, because the tie was settled by upstream fetch arrival order. RESPONSE: each venue's leg-by-leg prices (raw probability 0-1) plus matched spread[].top_spreads_pp (Kalshi − Polymarket) where the same outcome shows up on both sides. SAFETY FIELDS: compatibility_warning is a sentence and compatibility_codes[] the machine-readable form; BOTH can be non-empty on returned pairs, so read them even when matched_pairs>0. Codes: event_subject_mismatch (the two event titles share no subject words — probably not the same question), temporal_mismatch (the two events are about different SUBJECT months — e.g. Kalshi "CPI in October" vs Polymarket "September Inflation"), temporal_alignment_unknown (the subject month could not be parsed on one or both sides — NOT the same as confirmed-aligned; check each event yourself), non_equivalent_bet_shapes, no_candidate_pairs, unclassified_legs_excluded, pairing_unverified (set in EITHER mode whenever pairs are returned: the legs were matched by keyword and word overlap, not a shared resolution source). Each entry in top_spreads_pp carries its own flags[] (temporal_mismatch, temporal_alignment_unknown, event_subject_mismatch, low_token_overlap). A leg whose metric_type or match_subtype is "unknown" is NEVER paired — those comparisons land in spread.skipped_unclassified and, when the wording lined up, in spread.low_confidence_pairs[] for inspection only. temporal_alignment{polymarket_month,kalshi_month,aligned} tells you whether the two events are about the same SUBJECT calendar period, in EITHER mode — this is the period the question is ABOUT (e.g. "September" for a CPI release that settles in October), not necessarily when either side settles; null means it could not be computed (see temporal_alignment_unknown), not that the two sides align. Fleet #2062: this used to compare Polymarket's settlement date against Kalshi's subject month and call a match — fixed to compare subject month to subject month on both sides. FEES: every top_spreads_pp and low_confidence_pairs[] row carries edge_pp_gross (== |sp

• 2026-10-14polymarket_edgesremoved

  Scan top Polymarket markets and return opportunities where Pipeworx data disagrees with market price. Built for "what should I bet on today" — agents discover opportunities without paging hundreds of markets. FIVE MODEL FAMILIES grouped into three response segments under by_segment: (1) MODEL_DRIVEN — crypto_price (lognormal barrier from 90d FRED log-returns) and news_momentum (GDELT 7d/21d article-volume ratio, soft signal w/ halved Kelly). (2) STRUCTURAL_ARBITRAGE — partition_overround on mutually-exclusive events; per-leg favorite-longshot bias correction with per-sport α (tennis 1.02, soccer 1.10, MMA 1.15, default 1.0); placeholder-slug filter drops will-person-X / will-team-Y / will-manager-Z / will-someone-else- backstops; partitions with >20% placeholder fraction skipped entirely. (3) CONCENTRATED_LONGSHOT — basket trade when one leg ≥75% AND ≥2 longshots ≤8% AND portfolio return ≥25:1; rare-by-design (gates relaxed Run 8 from prior 85%/5%/50:1). EVERY OPPORTUNITY carries edge_pp_net (net of slippage AND Polymarket's own taker fee — fees_pp_applied itemises the fee component; see fees.ts for the published per-category schedule), kelly_fraction + kelly_fraction_half (capped at 0.25), market.liquidity, market.spread_pp, market.volume, plus a 24h-move warning ("Market moved X.Xpp in 24h") when the recent move alone exceeds the edge — your edge may already be in the price. TRADEABLE-EDGE KNOBS: min_liquidity / max_spread_pp drop opportunities where edge isn't realizable; min_partition_leg_kelly filters partitions by best per-leg Kelly. RESPONSE TOP-LEVEL: by_segment{model_driven,structural_arbitrage,concentrated_longshot}, fed_candidates/fed_note (Fed bets surface here, excluded from ranking — 1m-T vs EFFR signal is unreliable at meeting-month horizons without paid OIS/SOFR-futures data), and _diagnostics{concentrated_longshot:{...funnel counters},category_counts,filter_skips} so callers can see WHY a segment is empty (top-N stale, all candidates failed gates, knob dropped them). Cached 1h at the KV level keyed on all knobs.

• 2026-10-14recent_alertsremoved

  Pull fired events from your subscription feed. Returns the most recent alerts the evaluator has written to your persisted feed — each carries source, citation_uri (pipeworx:// when available), and the raw event payload. Filter by type (e.g. "sec_8k") and/or since (ISO timestamp). Set mark_read:true to flag returned events read so the next call only shows newer ones. Polls work fine; the same feed is also at GET registry.pipeworx.io/alerts.json for scripts and dashboards.

• 2026-10-14search_withinremoved

  Semantic search INSIDE a fetched record. Pass the text you already pulled (e.g. a SEC 10-K body, an article, a long tool result) plus a natural-language query; get back the top-N passages with character offsets and similarity scores. Use when the record is too big to cram into the prompt — search_within saves context, returns only the passages that matter, and every passage carries an offset so the agent can verify a verbatim quote. Pairs with ask_pipeworx_grounded: fetch with the gateway, ground over the relevant passages instead of the whole document. BGE-base-en embeddings + cosine over 500-char overlapping windows; cap is 200K chars (longer inputs are truncated and flagged).

• 2026-10-14unsubscriberemoved

  Cancel a subscription by id. Ownership is enforced — you can only cancel your own subscriptions. The row is deactivated (not deleted) so its historical events stay available via recent_alerts.

• 2026-10-14resolve_entityremoved

  "What's the ticker for…" / "find the CIK for…" / "what's the LEI for…" / "what's the RxCUI for…" / "look up the ID for…" / "what is X's official identifier" / "who owns X" / "is X a subsidiary of Y" — resolve a user-spoken NAME to the canonical/official identifiers other tools require as input. Use FIRST whenever you have a name but need an ID. SUPPORTED TYPES: "company" (cross-source identity spine: 10-digit CIK + ticker + company_name from SEC EDGAR, legal-entity LEI from GLEIF with parent/ultimate-parent/children ownership when the LEI resolves, and security FIGI from OpenFIGI — by exact ticker map when a ticker is implied, and otherwise by name search, so NON-EQUITY instruments that never have a ticker (municipal and corporate bonds, notes, authority debt) DO resolve here; when a name matches more than one instrument it asserts nothing and returns `figi_candidates` to pick from, which is the correct answer to an issuer name that does not identify a single bond; every identifier is labelled with the source that established it, and an identifier that could NOT be resolved is stated explicitly under `unresolved` rather than omitted — accepts ticker, CIK, ISIN, or company name as input; an ISIN like "CH0038863350" resolves to the LEGAL ENTITY that issued the security via the GLEIF ISIN-to-LEI mapping, covering non-US issuers EDGAR cannot reach), "drug" (returns RxCUI + ingredient + brand from RxNorm + pipeworx://rxnorm/concept/{rxcui} citation; accepts brand or generic name). LEI/FIGI enrichment degrades gracefully — if GLEIF or OpenFIGI is unavailable, the EDGAR identifiers still return. Each call cascades through several lookup endpoints internally — using resolve_entity replaces 2-3 manual lookups.

• 2026-10-14resolution_auditremoved

  Extract the settlement clause of a single Polymarket or Kalshi market: who publishes the settling number (source), the clock time + timezone it is taken at, the precision of the computation (e.g. "1-minute candle close" vs "60-second trailing average" vs "election outcome"), the evidence standard (official_source | consensus_reporting | any_credible_report | unspecified), and void_handling (cancellation/postponement settlement — reused verbatim from bet_research's cancellation_rule detector, not re-derived). Parses Polymarket's `description` field (fetched via polymarket_market) or Kalshi's `rules_primary` + `rules_secondary` fields (fetched via kalshi_market) with regex + a small vocabulary — no LLM pass, so an unusual clause reports confidence:"low" rather than a guess. Pass `market` as a Polymarket slug/URL or a Kalshi market ticker (e.g. "KXBTCD-26SEP1317-T66999.99"); a Kalshi EVENT ticker (e.g. "KXBTCD-26SEP1317") also works — it picks one representative market under that event, since the settlement mechanism is normally shared across all strikes/legs in one event. Use this before treating a polymarket_kalshi_spread row as a real arbitrage: two ladders that look alike can settle on different sources, at different times, with different precision — this tool is how you check. Pair with resolution_diff to compare two markets directly. KNOWN GAP: idiosyncratic phrasing that doesn't match the vocabulary returns confidence:"low" and evidence_standard:"unspecified" rather than an LLM-guessed answer.

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