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Tool list unknown · tools last changed 2026-10-18 · checked 2026-10-19 10:52 UTC

Tool changes

• 2026-10-18kalshi_weather_edgeremoved

  Prices Kalshi daily high-temperature markets against the NWS forecast for the market's OWN settlement station, and measures whether that forecast actually beats the market. Two modes. LIVE (default): returns the full strike ladder for one city and settlement date with market_prob (mid), forecast_prob, and edge_pp per strike, plus the settlement clause verbatim. BACKTEST (`backtest_days: N`): scores an archived gridded forecast against the market on settled days and returns brier_market vs brier_forecast with a plain-English `verdict`, so the edge is MEASURED rather than asserted. READ THE WARNINGS — they are not boilerplate. (1) These markets DO NOT settle on the NWS. They settle on The Weather Company (weather.com) at a Kalshi station code such as CLINYC, which the response quotes verbatim; so part of every edge_pp is NWS-vs-Weather-Company disagreement about the same day at the same station, which is not mispricing and not tradeable. `settlement_vs_forecast_basis_f` from backtest mode is that part as a number. (2) The station is DERIVED from the settlement clause, never from the city name: Chicago settles at MIDWAY and New York at CENTRAL PARK, so a city-centre forecast would misprice a whole ladder. A station that cannot be resolved yields rows with no forecast and a reason, never a guessed coordinate. (3) forecast_prob assumes a normal distribution around the NWS high whose width is ASSUMED, not fitted (stated in `distribution_assumption`) — run backtest mode to see whether it is calibrated. (4) edge_pp is gross: no Kalshi fees, no bid-ask. MEASURED RESULT, AND IT IS NOT THE FLATTERING ONE: on the first backtest (KXHIGHNY, 13 settled days to 2026-09-11, 58 market observations) the MARKET beat the forecast — Brier 0.1008 for the market against 0.1594 for the archived gridded forecast, lower being better. So on that sample there is NO forecast edge to sell, and a large edge_pp is more likely to be the model disagreeing with a better-informed market than an opportunity. The measured settlement-vs-forecast basis was 1.7F mean absolute over 8 pinnable days, slightly warm-biased, which is a big share of a typical edge_pp on a 2-degree bracket. Re-run backtest_days before believing any edge; if a later sample reverses this, the numbers say so. NWS is US-only, so the ~30 international Kalshi weather series (London, Paris, Tokyo) return market prices with forecast_unavailable rather than a forecast. Precipitation series are listed but not yet priced. Cities: nyc, chicago, los angeles, miami, austin, houston, denver, philadelphia — or pass `series_ticker` for any other (e.g. "KXHIGHTBOS").

• 2026-10-18polymarket_fill_riskremoved

  Realizable-vs-theoretical edge check against live CLOB order-book depth. REQUIRES one of `market` (single-market mode) or `event` (basket/partition mode). SINGLE-MARKET: pass a market slug/URL + side (buy_yes|sell_yes|buy_no|sell_no, default buy_yes) + size_usd (default 1000 — max spend on buys, target proceeds on sells); walks the ladder and returns top_of_book, vwap_fill_price, slippage_pp, shares_filled, max_fillable_usd, and a verdict (clean|degraded|cannot_fill). BASKET: pass an event slug/URL + side (sell_yes = capture overround by selling every leg, buy_yes = capture underround; default auto from partition sum) + size_usd interpreted as settlement notional S (shares per leg; each share pays $1); returns theoretical_sum vs realizable_sum (top-of-book vs VWAP across all legs), capture_ratio, profit_usd at executed size, per-leg fill detail, thin_legs[], max_clean_notional_usd, and forced_directional_risk naming the legs most likely to strand you unhedged. USE THIS before acting on any polymarket_arbitrage SELL/BUY-EVERY-LEG signal or any polymarket_edges trade above ~$500 — theoretical overround on thin books is not capturable, and partial basket fills convert an arb into an unhedged directional position (the dominant loss mode in real arb-bot P&L). FEES ARE NOT MODELLED HERE: vwap_fill_price/profit_usd are GROSS of Polymarket's own taker fee (rate 0.04-0.07 by category — see polymarket_edges/fees.ts), on top of which this tool prices depth-crossing cost; a thin-margin fill that looks clean here can still be net-negative after the fee.

• 2026-10-18validate_claimremoved

  "Is it true that…" / "fact check" / "verify the claim that…" / "did X really…" / "was Y actually…" / "confirm or refute" / "true or false" — natural-language claim verification against authoritative sources. Use whenever the agent needs to check whether something a user said is factually correct. Company-financial claims (revenue, net income, cash for public US companies) verify via the structured SEC EDGAR + XBRL fast path with exact percent-delta math; ANY OTHER factual claim (macro statistics, rates, prices, drug data, records) automatically falls through to the grounded pipeline — routed to the right live source, answered with verbatim evidence, then judged. Returns a verdict (confirmed / approximately_correct / refuted / inconclusive / unsupported / could_not_verify), the grounded or structured actual value with pipeworx:// citation, and reasoning. IMPORTANT for callers: could_not_verify means the check did not happen (our LLM or source failed) and carries verification_error{stage,detail} — it is NOT evidence for or against the claim, and must not be shown as one. unsupported means we looked and cover no source for it. Replaces 4–6 sequential calls (NL parsing → entity resolution → data lookup → comparison).

• 2026-10-18resolve_entityremoved

  "What's the ticker for…" / "find the CIK for…" / "what's the LEI for…" / "what's the RxCUI for…" / "look up the ID for…" / "what is X's official identifier" / "who owns X" / "is X a subsidiary of Y" — resolve a user-spoken NAME to the canonical/official identifiers other tools require as input. Use FIRST whenever you have a name but need an ID. SUPPORTED TYPES: "company" (cross-source identity spine: 10-digit CIK + ticker + company_name from SEC EDGAR, legal-entity LEI from GLEIF with parent/ultimate-parent/children ownership when the LEI resolves, and security FIGI from OpenFIGI — by exact ticker map when a ticker is implied, and otherwise by name search, so NON-EQUITY instruments that never have a ticker (municipal and corporate bonds, notes, authority debt) DO resolve here; when a name matches more than one instrument it asserts nothing and returns `figi_candidates` to pick from, which is the correct answer to an issuer name that does not identify a single bond; every identifier is labelled with the source that established it, and an identifier that could NOT be resolved is stated explicitly under `unresolved` rather than omitted — accepts ticker, CIK, ISIN, or company name as input; an ISIN like "CH0038863350" resolves to the LEGAL ENTITY that issued the security via the GLEIF ISIN-to-LEI mapping, covering non-US issuers EDGAR cannot reach), "drug" (returns RxCUI + ingredient + brand from RxNorm + pipeworx://rxnorm/concept/{rxcui} citation; accepts brand or generic name). LEI/FIGI enrichment degrades gracefully — if GLEIF or OpenFIGI is unavailable, the EDGAR identifiers still return. Each call cascades through several lookup endpoints internally — using resolve_entity replaces 2-3 manual lookups.

• 2026-10-18monday_get_boardremoved

  Get board structure and metadata (e.g., board ID "12345"). Returns name, columns, groups, and item count.

• 2026-10-18monday_list_boardsremoved

  List all boards in your account. Returns board ID, name, state, and item count to discover available boards.

• 2026-10-18recallremoved

  Retrieve a value previously saved via remember, or list all saved keys (omit the key argument). Use to look up context the agent stored earlier — the user's target ticker, an address, prior research notes — without re-deriving it from scratch. Scoped to your identifier (anonymous IP, BYO key hash, or account ID). Pair with remember to save, forget to delete.

• 2026-10-18resolution_auditremoved

  Extract the settlement clause of a single Polymarket or Kalshi market: who publishes the settling number (source), the clock time + timezone it is taken at, the precision of the computation (e.g. "1-minute candle close" vs "60-second trailing average" vs "election outcome"), the evidence standard (official_source | consensus_reporting | any_credible_report | unspecified), and void_handling (cancellation/postponement settlement — reused verbatim from bet_research's cancellation_rule detector, not re-derived). Parses Polymarket's `description` field (fetched via polymarket_market) or Kalshi's `rules_primary` + `rules_secondary` fields (fetched via kalshi_market) with regex + a small vocabulary — no LLM pass, so an unusual clause reports confidence:"low" rather than a guess. Pass `market` as a Polymarket slug/URL or a Kalshi market ticker (e.g. "KXBTCD-26SEP1317-T66999.99"); a Kalshi EVENT ticker (e.g. "KXBTCD-26SEP1317") also works — it picks one representative market under that event, since the settlement mechanism is normally shared across all strikes/legs in one event. Use this before treating a polymarket_kalshi_spread row as a real arbitrage: two ladders that look alike can settle on different sources, at different times, with different precision — this tool is how you check. Pair with resolution_diff to compare two markets directly. KNOWN GAP: idiosyncratic phrasing that doesn't match the vocabulary returns confidence:"low" and evidence_standard:"unspecified" rather than an LLM-guessed answer.

• 2026-10-18polymarket_edgesremoved

  Scan top Polymarket markets and return opportunities where Pipeworx data disagrees with market price. Built for "what should I bet on today" — agents discover opportunities without paging hundreds of markets. FIVE MODEL FAMILIES grouped into three response segments under by_segment: (1) MODEL_DRIVEN — crypto_price (lognormal barrier from 90d FRED log-returns) and news_momentum (GDELT 7d/21d article-volume ratio, soft signal w/ halved Kelly). (2) STRUCTURAL_ARBITRAGE — partition_overround on mutually-exclusive events; per-leg favorite-longshot bias correction with per-sport α (tennis 1.02, soccer 1.10, MMA 1.15, default 1.0); placeholder-slug filter drops will-person-X / will-team-Y / will-manager-Z / will-someone-else- backstops; partitions with >20% placeholder fraction skipped entirely. (3) CONCENTRATED_LONGSHOT — basket trade when one leg ≥75% AND ≥2 longshots ≤8% AND portfolio return ≥25:1; rare-by-design (gates relaxed Run 8 from prior 85%/5%/50:1). EVERY OPPORTUNITY carries edge_pp_net (net of slippage AND Polymarket's own taker fee — fees_pp_applied itemises the fee component; see fees.ts for the published per-category schedule), kelly_fraction + kelly_fraction_half (capped at 0.25), market.liquidity, market.spread_pp, market.volume, plus a 24h-move warning ("Market moved X.Xpp in 24h") when the recent move alone exceeds the edge — your edge may already be in the price. TRADEABLE-EDGE KNOBS: min_liquidity / max_spread_pp drop opportunities where edge isn't realizable; min_partition_leg_kelly filters partitions by best per-leg Kelly. RESPONSE TOP-LEVEL: by_segment{model_driven,structural_arbitrage,concentrated_longshot}, fed_candidates/fed_note (Fed bets surface here, excluded from ranking — 1m-T vs EFFR signal is unreliable at meeting-month horizons without paid OIS/SOFR-futures data), and _diagnostics{concentrated_longshot:{...funnel counters},category_counts,filter_skips} so callers can see WHY a segment is empty (top-N stale, all candidates failed gates, knob dropped them). Cached 1h at the KV level keyed on all knobs.

• 2026-10-18search_withinremoved

  Semantic search INSIDE a fetched record. Pass the text you already pulled (e.g. a SEC 10-K body, an article, a long tool result) plus a natural-language query; get back the top-N passages with character offsets and similarity scores. Use when the record is too big to cram into the prompt — search_within saves context, returns only the passages that matter, and every passage carries an offset so the agent can verify a verbatim quote. Pairs with ask_pipeworx_grounded: fetch with the gateway, ground over the relevant passages instead of the whole document. BGE-base-en embeddings + cosine over 500-char overlapping windows; cap is 200K chars (longer inputs are truncated and flagged).

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