Estatesales Net

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Tool list unknown · tools last changed 2026-10-08 · checked 2026-10-19 16:20 UTC

Tool changes

• 2026-10-08bet_researchremoved

  Research a Polymarket bet by pulling the relevant Pipeworx data for it in one call. Pass a market slug ("will-kristi-noem-win-the-2028-republican-presidential-nomination"), a polymarket.com URL, or a question text. Prefer an UNDATED slug: a dated one ("...-by-june-30-2026") stops resolving the day it settles, because Polymarket de-indexes resolved markets. The tool resolves the market, classifies the bet, fans out to category-specific data packs in parallel, and returns an evidence packet + simple market-vs-model comparison. Use for "should I bet on X", "what does the data say about Y", or "is there edge in Z". CLASSIFIERS: crypto_price, fed_rate, geopolitical, sports, sports_championship, drug_approval, election_candidate, tech_launch, space_launch, corporate, corporate_earnings, corporate_event, public_figure_speech, weather, other. FAN-OUT EXAMPLES: BTC bet → coingecko + fred + gdelt+gnews; Fed bet → fred (DFEDTARU + EFFR + CPIAUCSL) + kalshi_macro (KXFED implied probs) + recent_fed_actions (federal-register rules, last 365d); Hormuz bet → imf_portwatch + airspace + gdelt; Yankees WS → mlb_stats_standings + parent_event partition + news; hottest-year bet → climate_projection_nyc + gistemp_latest (NASA global anomaly, rank since 1880) + news; NVDA-vs-AAPL → finnhub get_quote + edgar shares-outstanding (derived market cap) + edgar filings + news. RESPONSE SHAPES: result.market carries best_bid/best_ask/spread_pp/liquidity/price_change_1h/1d/1w; result.analysis carries model_probability/edge_pp/kelly_fraction_half when a closed-form model fires PLUS a 24h-move warning ("Market moved X.Xpp in 24h, comparable to model edge — your edge may already be priced in") when relevant; result.evidence is keyed by source. RESOLVER CONTRACT: result.market_match_confidence ∈ {high, medium, low, none}, market_match_score (0-1 token-overlap), market_match_alternatives[] (other candidate markets the resolver considered), and suggestions[] (explicit re-query hints when the match is fuzzy) — ALWAYS inspect these before trusting the analysis block, because medium/low matches can still surface other fields. PARENT_EVENT EXTRACTOR: when the bet is one leg of a partition (Yankees WS, Romania election), result.parent_event{matched_candidate, top_legs_by_price[], partition_size, placeholders_filtered} gives you the peer prices in one place — that's the headline for elections/championships. NEWS FIELDS: news entries carry _fallback_attempted / _fallback_failed_reason / retry_after_sec when GDELT 429s and GNews backfill ran or failed. SAFETY: low-confidence resolutions short-circuit with status:"low_confidence_match" and suppress analysis fields so agents can't accidentally size on phantom matches. Closed/dead markets that ARE still indexed by Polymarket (yes_price≈0, no volume, no liquidity) return status:"market_closed_or_inactive" and skip fan-out. A market whose own deadline has already passed returns status:"market_expired_or_resolved" + expired_deadline (the date), which is deliberately NOT the same answer as low_confidence_match: your slug was right and is merely settled, so the useful retry is the successor market for the same question, not a corrected spelling. In practice resolved markets are usually de-indexed and instead surface via one of those two paths — both routes are BLOCKING, just different mechanisms. Wide-spread markets (>10pp) carry tradeability:"illiquid_wide_spread" + an explanatory note. RESOLUTION-RULE RISK: market.cancellation_rule parses the void/postponement settlement out of the resolution text — refund_50_50 (shares settle flat 50¢ on void; EV-material for any entry away from 50¢, with ev_impact quantified), resolves_no_on_cancel, resolves_yes_on_cancel, carries_to_reschedule, or mentioned_unclear. null means the description never mentions cancellation. Check this before sizing sports/esports/event-occurrence bets — audited arb-bot ledgers show flat-50¢ void settlements are a recurring pure-rules loss.

• 2026-10-08polymarket_fill_riskremoved

  Realizable-vs-theoretical edge check against live CLOB order-book depth. REQUIRES one of `market` (single-market mode) or `event` (basket/partition mode). SINGLE-MARKET: pass a market slug/URL + side (buy_yes|sell_yes|buy_no|sell_no, default buy_yes) + size_usd (default 1000 — max spend on buys, target proceeds on sells); walks the ladder and returns top_of_book, vwap_fill_price, slippage_pp, shares_filled, max_fillable_usd, and a verdict (clean|degraded|cannot_fill). BASKET: pass an event slug/URL + side (sell_yes = capture overround by selling every leg, buy_yes = capture underround; default auto from partition sum) + size_usd interpreted as settlement notional S (shares per leg; each share pays $1); returns theoretical_sum vs realizable_sum (top-of-book vs VWAP across all legs), capture_ratio, profit_usd at executed size, per-leg fill detail, thin_legs[], max_clean_notional_usd, and forced_directional_risk naming the legs most likely to strand you unhedged. USE THIS before acting on any polymarket_arbitrage SELL/BUY-EVERY-LEG signal or any polymarket_edges trade above ~$500 — theoretical overround on thin books is not capturable, and partial basket fills convert an arb into an unhedged directional position (the dominant loss mode in real arb-bot P&L). FEES ARE NOT MODELLED HERE: vwap_fill_price/profit_usd are GROSS of Polymarket's own taker fee (rate 0.04-0.07 by category — see polymarket_edges/fees.ts), on top of which this tool prices depth-crossing cost; a thin-margin fill that looks clean here can still be net-negative after the fee.

• 2026-10-08forgetremoved

  Delete a previously stored memory by key. Use when context is stale, the task is done, or you want to clear sensitive data the agent saved earlier. Pair with remember and recall.

• 2026-10-08polymarket_kalshi_spreadremoved

  Cross-venue spread between Kalshi and Polymarket for the same resolving question. The two venues sometimes price the same outcome 2-25pp apart because their participant pools differ — when the bet shapes are equivalent that delta is a real signal, when they aren't the tool says so. TWO MODES: (1) `topic` — 11 pre-mapped macro subjects ("fed", "btc", "eth", "cpi", "gdp", "sp500", "recession", "next_pope", "next_uk_pm", "next_israel_pm", "2028_president") auto-fetch the matching event on each venue. You do NOT have to use those exact keys: the topic is resolved through aliases and keywords, so "bitcoin", "fed rate decision", "inflation", "s&p 500" and "next pope" all land on the right subject, and `resolution.topic_matched_by` tells you whether it was an exact key, a known alias, a phrase found inside a longer question, or a single-keyword guess — treat "phrase" and "token" as a GUESS at what you meant. An unresolvable topic returns error:"mapping_failed" with mapping_stage:"topic_unrecognized" and known_topics[]; it never silently falls back to a default subject. (2) explicit `kalshi_event_ticker` + `polymarket_event_slug` for custom pairings — BOTH modes run the identical token-overlap matcher, so the same disclosures apply to both. `resolution` is returned in BOTH modes and says how each side's identifier was picked (which Kalshi series was queried, how many events came back, whether the chosen one had quoted markets; which Polymarket search query ran and why that event won). Fleet #2064: when two Polymarket candidates tie on resolution time `polymarket_selected_by` now SAYS so, names every tied slug, names the tie-break that actually decided it (the candidate whose metric_type matches the Kalshi series, else lexicographic slug order), and states whether the winner's metric matches the Kalshi series — it used to assert "picked the soonest-resolving" byte-identically on calls that returned DIFFERENT events, because the tie was settled by upstream fetch arrival order. RESPONSE: each venue's leg-by-leg prices (raw probability 0-1) plus matched spread[].top_spreads_pp (Kalshi − Polymarket) where the same outcome shows up on both sides. SAFETY FIELDS: compatibility_warning is a sentence and compatibility_codes[] the machine-readable form; BOTH can be non-empty on returned pairs, so read them even when matched_pairs>0. Codes: event_subject_mismatch (the two event titles share no subject words — probably not the same question), temporal_mismatch (the two events are about different SUBJECT months — e.g. Kalshi "CPI in October" vs Polymarket "September Inflation"), temporal_alignment_unknown (the subject month could not be parsed on one or both sides — NOT the same as confirmed-aligned; check each event yourself), non_equivalent_bet_shapes, no_candidate_pairs, unclassified_legs_excluded, pairing_unverified (set in EITHER mode whenever pairs are returned: the legs were matched by keyword and word overlap, not a shared resolution source). Each entry in top_spreads_pp carries its own flags[] (temporal_mismatch, temporal_alignment_unknown, event_subject_mismatch, low_token_overlap). A leg whose metric_type or match_subtype is "unknown" is NEVER paired — those comparisons land in spread.skipped_unclassified and, when the wording lined up, in spread.low_confidence_pairs[] for inspection only. temporal_alignment{polymarket_month,kalshi_month,aligned} tells you whether the two events are about the same SUBJECT calendar period, in EITHER mode — this is the period the question is ABOUT (e.g. "September" for a CPI release that settles in October), not necessarily when either side settles; null means it could not be computed (see temporal_alignment_unknown), not that the two sides align. Fleet #2062: this used to compare Polymarket's settlement date against Kalshi's subject month and call a match — fixed to compare subject month to subject month on both sides. FEES: every top_spreads_pp and low_confidence_pairs[] row carries edge_pp_gross (== |sp

• 2026-10-08recent_changesremoved

  "What's new with X" / "latest on Y" / "what happened to Z this week / month / quarter" / "updates on Acme" / "news on Tesla recently" / "what's happening with Apple" — change feed for a company in the last N days/weeks/months in ONE parallel call. Fans out to SEC EDGAR (filings since `since`), GDELT→GNews fallback (news mentions in window — GDELT preferred, GNews when rate-limited or 5xx), USPTO (patents granted; PatentsView API sunset May 2025 so this soft-fails until reactivated). `since` accepts ISO date ("2026-04-01") or relative shorthand ("7d", "30d", "3m", "1y"). Returns structured changes[] grouped by source + total_changes count + pipeworx:// citation URIs. Use entity_profile instead when you want the static profile (filings + fundamentals + LEI + patents) regardless of window.

• 2026-10-08scan_dependencyremoved

  Composite "should I add this npm package to my project" check in ONE call — fans out across deps.dev (license + advisories + version history) and bundlephobia (gzipped/minified bundle size, dependency count, ESM/tree-shake support). Use whenever an agent asks "is X safe / popular / small" or "what does adding lodash cost me". Returns a summary block (is_latest, license, published_at, advisory_count, bundle_kb_min, bundle_kb_gz, dependency_count, has_esm, tree_shakeable), per-advisory detail, links, and a list of recent alternative versions. NPM ecosystem only in v1; PyPI / Maven / Cargo / Go fall under deps.dev:version directly. Partial failures degrade gracefully — bundlephobia's first measurement on a new version can take 5-30s; sources_failed will list it if it times out, the rest still returns.

• 2026-10-08polymarket_arbitrageremoved

  Find arbitrage opportunities on Polymarket via monotonicity violations + partition-sum checks. Call with NO args for a `trending_scan` of the top ~200 markets by weekly volume; pass `event` for the strongest per-event partition_check, or `topic` for a themed cross-event scan. `event` (recommended for a specific market): pass a Polymarket event slug like "fed-decision-may-2026" or "when-will-bitcoin-hit-150k"; walks child markets, checks date-axis / threshold-axis ordering AND computes the partition_check (sum of YES prices across mutually-exclusive legs — should ≈1; deviations >3pp emit a BUY/SELL EVERY LEG signal). `topic` (for cross-event scanning): pass a seed question like "Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal" or "Fed rate decision"; searches related events across the platform, flattens markets, runs the comparator on the union. Cross-event mode catches "...by May 31" vs "...by Jun 30" patterns that single-event misses. SEMANTIC ANCHOR: cross-event pairs require ≥0.30 Jaccard similarity on question tokens (prevents Powell-Fed-Pause being paired with Powell-DOJ-probe); skipped_low_similarity surfaces the rejected pair count. PARTITION FILTER: drops will-person-X / will-manager-Y / will-someone-else- placeholder slugs; partitions with >20% placeholder fraction return null arb signal. Response: opportunities[] (gap_pp, suggested_trade, reasoning, monotonicity violation context), and in event mode partition_check{sum_yes_prices, gap_from_1, placeholders_filtered, suggested_trade}. FEES: every opportunities[] row and partition_check.arbitrage carry edge_pp_gross (== gap_pp / overround_pp), fees_pp, edge_pp_net, net_positive, plus polymarket_fee_pp, fee_basis and fee_categories[]. BOTH cost components are modeled: Polymarket's own per-category TAKER FEE (fee = shares × rate × p × (1-p), rates crypto 0.07 / sports-economics-culture-weather-other 0.05 / finance-politics-mentions-tech 0.04, geopolitics and world events fee-free; verified against Polymarket's own docs as of 2026-09-13) and Polygon gas (~$0.02/leg). The taker fee dominates: ~$1.75 per 100 shares on a crypto market at 50c versus $0.02 of gas, so rows that looked profitable before fleet #1927 may now show net_positive:false — that is the correction, not a regression. Each leg is priced at ITS OWN market's rate and price (the fee curve peaks at 50c and falls toward both extremes). fee_basis says where the rate came from: 'payload' (read off the market, the normal case), 'category' (mapped from its fee category), 'fee_free', or 'fallback' (rate unknown — charged at the modal 0.05 rather than assumed free, so an unreadable market is never reported as costless). Where fill_check reprices against live depth, this does NOT double-count that spread cost. FILL CHECK: when the partition signal fires, arbitrage.fill_check prices it against live CLOB depth (theoretical_edge_pp_at_book vs realizable_edge_pp at 1000 shares/leg, thin_legs[]) — realizable_edge_pp ≤ 0 means the overround exists only at last-trade, not in the book; do not trade it. For custom sizing use polymarket_fill_risk.

• 2026-10-08estatesales_saleremoved

  One EstateSales.NET sale in full, by sale ID: name, description, terms, sale type, every scheduled date/time, coordinates, picture count, and the company or seller running it with their phone and page. The street address is included only once EstateSales.NET has published it — estate sales are usually at a private home and the site holds the address back until shortly before the sale.

• 2026-10-08scan_competitor_ai_presenceremoved

  Compare AI visibility across multiple entities side-by-side. Probes each entity (your brand + N competitors) with ai_visibility_check, ranks by score, surfaces which is most/least recognized. Useful for competitive AI-marketing audits: "does Claude know about us as well as our competitors?". Returns ranked list with score, confidence, signal density per entity.

• 2026-10-08resolve_entityremoved

  "What's the ticker for…" / "find the CIK for…" / "what's the LEI for…" / "what's the RxCUI for…" / "look up the ID for…" / "what is X's official identifier" / "who owns X" / "is X a subsidiary of Y" — resolve a user-spoken NAME to the canonical/official identifiers other tools require as input. Use FIRST whenever you have a name but need an ID. SUPPORTED TYPES: "company" (cross-source identity spine: 10-digit CIK + ticker + company_name from SEC EDGAR, legal-entity LEI from GLEIF with parent/ultimate-parent/children ownership when the LEI resolves, and security FIGI from OpenFIGI — by exact ticker map when a ticker is implied, and otherwise by name search, so NON-EQUITY instruments that never have a ticker (municipal and corporate bonds, notes, authority debt) DO resolve here; when a name matches more than one instrument it asserts nothing and returns `figi_candidates` to pick from, which is the correct answer to an issuer name that does not identify a single bond; every identifier is labelled with the source that established it, and an identifier that could NOT be resolved is stated explicitly under `unresolved` rather than omitted — accepts ticker, CIK, ISIN, or company name as input; an ISIN like "CH0038863350" resolves to the LEGAL ENTITY that issued the security via the GLEIF ISIN-to-LEI mapping, covering non-US issuers EDGAR cannot reach), "drug" (returns RxCUI + ingredient + brand from RxNorm + pipeworx://rxnorm/concept/{rxcui} citation; accepts brand or generic name). LEI/FIGI enrichment degrades gracefully — if GLEIF or OpenFIGI is unavailable, the EDGAR identifiers still return. Each call cascades through several lookup endpoints internally — using resolve_entity replaces 2-3 manual lookups.

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Checks run on what our credential-free, read-only probes observe; tools are never called and no code audit is performed. How it is computed.